Tuesday, May 12, 2009

RVOD

7 9 4 4 1 4
I've invented a new statistic. Its major flaw is that I've no way of going back and accumulating the game-by-game data. No Retrosheet solution for this one, lads. You'll have to pioneer it with me tonight. Because it happened tonight, and I'm absolutely convinced it has happened too many times before. We all know it, we've all seen it. I'm referring to, of course, the Righetti Visit of Doom. This is beyond coincidence and random chance. This is a huge player, a major factor, a game-changer. "Coaching visit to mound" is all it says in GameDay, but oh, the portents. Oh, the weight of drama. Yessir, I'm on to your evil influence, Davey. You saunter out to the mound, acting all bad and stuff, and tell our boys nothing but lies. Lies, Ragman, lies! What'd you say tonight, eh? "Oh, no sweat Matty-boy, this Nick Johnson's a pussy. Your stuff will mess with his head. Just hit the glove, Matty, just hit the glove." A quick ass-grab and some more of that sauntering, and our boy is toast, I tell you, toast. Don't believe me? Explain this Dodger-blue hat, then! Poor Matt does what he's told, fires it target-ward, and Nick Johnson smacks it out of the yard. If anyone needed proof, absolute, unassailable proof of the RVOD, he got it tonight.

Other notes: Ryan Zimmerman took care of business right away. 30 games! That's something. SeƱor Slow WALKED and then SCORED FROM FIRST on a double. That right there was probably enough improbability to overcome the insidious effect of the Righetti Visit of Doom.

Cain-dicators: lots of batters (31) and baserunners (9 hits) but only one walk. Nine groundballs. Only four strikeouts. 100 pitches, 68 strikes. (The HR is entirely the coach's fault. RVOD! RVOD! ) Our Win Expectancy before the homer was 89.6%, afterwards it was 73.4%. It plunged to 51.8% after Belliard's game-tying hit off Howry in the 8th, and thence to 14.5% after Johnson's hit (Ishi's Boner). Alas, another ND for M.C.

But improbabilities started piling up again, and Manny B got it going with two outs in the 9th, setting it up for Sandoval after the walk to Rental. He then BLASTED THE FOOKIN' GAME-WINNER!!! As Jon Miller said: "what a finish!" Sandoval TOOK FOUR PITCHES before hitting the big bomb. That hit had a WPA (Win Probability Added) of .824, swinging the win expectancy from 17.6% to, obviously, 100%. Man, it has been quite a run with this team--they keep defying the odds and overcoming expectations. Can it last?

I sure love a three-run HR, don't you?

(a.m. update) Before Pablito's heorics, he'd fallen flat on his face in the 7th trying to stretch a double into a triple, and there was a moment when everyone thought he'd been injured. M.C. straightened us out (from Schulman's story this morning in the Comical):

"The Kung Fu Panda does not get hurt," Cain said.

5 comments:

Bob said...

I wanted to comment on Monday's win, especially to note that it was a feel-good game for 3 guys who needed it, Winn (4 3 3 1) Rowand (3 2 2 1) and Ishikawa (4 1 3 2). And I think it's time to start getting a little bit excited about Johnson's impending win #300. Some say it will never happen again.
I didn't know the Giants won last night's game until I read it in RMC and then not until the last paragraph. I was at work and watching it on and off but gave up with one out in the bottom of the ninth. Stupid me. Lives to be saved and all, you know.
Isn't it cool how many runs we've scored recently? Good vibes.

Zo said...

Some said we would never see another 300 game winner when Clemens won his 300th, even though Greg Maddux was two years younger at the time and had already won 285. Since then Tom Glavine has also won 300. "Some" are not very smart. Why shouldn't any good young pitcher have a decent shot at 300? Why not Tim Lincecum? Why not Matt Cain? It is a matter of long term arm health more than anything. And pitching for a team that can actually get you a win for a good start (the reason Randy Johnson does not have 300 already). I know that "some" say the reason is that pitchers don't go deep into games, more specialists, fewer starts. 20 years of 15 wins is 300. Do some not think pitchers can win 15 games a year or do some not think pitchers can pitch for 20 years?

M.C. O'Connor said...

Or do some think not at all?

Some, I think. Not all.

The 56-game hittin streak may be one of the few "un-touchable" accumulations. Barry's 232 walks might be another.

But we will see 300 wins again.

M.C. O'Connor said...

Wasn't that a great game last night?

Looks like we won't have any magic today.

Bob said...

"Some" is a great standby source for almost any form of BS.
RVOD sighting in the top of the seventh. Game probably out of reach now.
Start carving the HOF plaque for Martis.